Thailand Real Estate Market Industry Report Q1 2013

The Thailand Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and constructionsegments in the context of a subdued economy whose commercial real estate market is currentlycharacterised by its reconstruction efforts.

With a focus on the principal cities of Bangkok, Rayong and Pattaya the report covers the rental marketperformance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximisereturns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impactof global economic woes upon the sector. The key potential growth areas driven by increasing activityreconstruction damage caused by the 2011 floods are also explored alongside newly collected datacovering rents and yields for the first six months of 2012.

Concerns remain prominent among investors. However, Chinese corporate interest in the Thai real estatesector is coming to the surface. Following a recent business match-making roadshow to China, a numberof Chinese firms have shown an interest in international collaboration. Thailand's stock as an investmentdestination among Chinese firms is rising, and the local Thai real estate sector is one industry which hasbeen highlighted as an area of growing overseas interest.

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Key Points

Reconstruction efforts contributed significantly to a strong rebound from an 8.9% y-o-ycontraction in real GDP growth in Q411 to 0.3% y-o-y growth in Q112. However, we view theseas one-off effects that will wear off over the coming months. Moreover, given that we do not seethe case for a strong pickup in external demand, we expect real GDP growth to remain subduedat 4.0% for 2012, below average consensus forecasts of 5.1%.

We continue to expect a modest recovery for Thailand's construction sector in 2012, with theunderlying assumptions for a recovery (such as the implementation of flood preventionmeasures, robust building construction activity and conducive monetary conditions forconstruction) still holding firm.

Despite the better-than-expected real GDP growth numbers, which showed that Thailand'seconomy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q212, we aremaintaining our view that full-year growth will come in at just 4.0% in 2012. Recent economicdata across the region continue to indicate a sustained slowdown in exports. We believe that thetrue extent of trade linkages between China and economies in the South East Asian region, andthe resulting implications of an economic slowdown in China on the Thai economy, have beenunderappreciated by Thai policymakers.

The latest move by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to relax rules for privateequity and venture capital firms to operate in Thailand is in line with our view that thegovernment will introduce further incentives to boost private sector investment and foreigndirect investment (FDI). The move should also support the country's aim to cement itself as theautomotive production hub in the region. Should we continue to see a sustained pickup in FDIinflows and private sector investment over the coming months, we would consider upgrading ourgrowth outlook for the economy in 2013.

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Table Of contents

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Thailand Real Estate/Construction SWOT

Thailand Political SWOT

Thailand Economic SWOT

Thailand Business Environment SWOT

Market Overview

Market Analysis - Office

Supply And Demand

Rents And Yields

Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (THB per m2/month)

Table: Net Yield, 2011-H112 (%)

Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H112

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Forecast Rents - (THB per m2/month)

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)

Market Analysis - Retail

Rents And Yields

Table: Rents - 2011-2012 (THB per m2/month)

Table: Net Yield, 2011-H112 (%)

Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H112

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Forecast Rents - (THB per m2/month)

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2017 (%)

Market Analysis - Industrial

Supply And Demand

Rents And Yields

Table: Historic Rents - 2011-2012 (THB per m2/month)

Table: Net Yield, 2011-H112 (%)

Table: Terms Of Rental Contract/Leases - H112

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Forecast Rents - (THB per m2/month)

Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2010-2016 (%)

Forecast Scenarios

Infrastructure Report

Table: Thailand Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2009-2016

Table: Thailand Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021

Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Thailand - Economic Activity

Real Estate Risk Reward Ratings

Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings

Thailand's Business Environment

Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings

Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating

Institutions

Infrastructure

Table: Labour Force Quality

Market Orientation

Table: Asia, Annual FDI Inflows

Table: Trade And Investment Ratings

Table: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 (US$mn)

Operational Risk

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles

Central Pattana (CPN)

Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited (ITD)

Demographic Data

Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)

Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)

Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020

Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020

BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Construction Industry

Bank Lending

Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating

Table: Weighting Of Indicators

Sources