Italy and Japan Telecommunications Industry Report Q2 2013

Italy Telecommunications Report Q2 2013

BMI View: Operators in Italy’s mobile and broadband markets faced considerable operating challenges in 2012, and the outlook remains challenging in the medium term. The local economy has entered recession and will likely lead to higher customer churn rates and customer winback/retention costs, even as the operators continue engaging in price wars focused on the mass consumer market and invest heavily in additional spectrum, to further 3G/3.5G/3.75G network infrastructure and begin developing their next generation 4G services. At the same time, further mobile termination rate (MTR) reductions hit operators’ revenues in 2012 and will again in early 2013, leaving them little room to manoeuvre. The main bright spot is in the value-added services (VAS) market, where consumption of non-voice services, particularly video and games, is booming.

Key Data

- Data from Vodafone and Telecom Italia show mobile ARPU declined sharply during2012, down 12.9% and 11.8% respectively y-o-y to Q412. A key factor was the implementation of steep MTR cuts in July 2012.

- Uptake of 3G subscriptions remained robust even in a difficult economic climate as consumer demand for smartphones drove growth. AGCOM reported 15.1% y-o-y growth in 3G subscriptions to the end of September 2012.

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Japan Telecommunications Report Q2 2013

BMI View: Japan’s telecommunications industry has been important to the country’s development, playing a key role in driving economic growth by equipping consumers and businesses with a comprehensive network of fixed-line, mobile and broadband services. Although the country is facing an ageing population and limited subscriber growth potential, operators are able to maintain revenue growth through technological advancements as well as the constant introduction of new products and services. 4G, which is starting to gain traction, will play a vital role in the future.

Key Data:

- Mobile subscriptions have continued to increase, reaching 138.867mn by the end of 2012. BMI forecasts the mobile market will continue to expand, reaching 160.89mn subscriptions with penetration set to rise to 128% by 2017.

- LTE subscription growth has accelerated, with NTT DoCoMo data showing the net additions of 2.48mn LTE subscriptions in the three months to the end of December 2012. With KDDI and Softbank following NTT in launching services, we expect LTE will drive development of both the mobile and broadband market in the short-to-medium term.

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Table of Content

BMI Industry View 7
Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Mobile .. 9
Fixed Line/Broadband 11
Economic 13
Political 15
Business Environment 16
Industry Business Environment Overview 17
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 17
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q213 20
Italy 21
Industry Forecast 23
Mobile 23
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 23
ARPU 25
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts (EUR) 25
Fixed-Line 27
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 27
Broadband 29
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 29
Market Overview 31
Mobile 31
Regional Perspective 31
Table: Italy Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 32
Key Developments 32
Mobile Growth 32
Table: Italy Mobile Market, Q312 34
Market Share And Net Additions 34
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000), 2011-2012 37
Subscription Divisions 37
Usage (MOU/ARPU) 39
MVNOs 42
3G/4G 43
Mobile Content/Value-Added Services 46
Mobile Operator Database 48
Table: Italy Mobile Market Overview 48
Table: Telecom Italia 51
Table: Vodafone 52
Table: WIND 53
Table: 3 Italia 54
Western Europe Mobile Content 56
Financialising Footfall 57
Interoperable M-Commerce A Stronger Proposition 57
Positioning Key To M2M Success 58
Fixed-Line 60
Local Loop Unbundling 61
Table: Telecom Italia OLO Accesses, Q411-Q412 62
VoIP 62
Wholesale Access 62
Broadband 64
Table: Italian Fixed Broadband Market Subscriptions By Operator (mn) 65
Industry Trends And Developments 74
LTE Arrives In Italy 74
Wind Proposes LTE Infrastructure Sharing 74
Telecom Italia Restructuring 74
WIND And Vodafone Partner With Metroweb For Fibre 75
Fastweb Commits To Fibre Future 76
Mobile Banking 77
Regulatory Development 78
Table: Italy: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 78
Regulatory Developments 80
Competitive Landscape 82
Table: Key Players - Italy Telecoms Sector 82
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators (US$mn) 82
Company Profile 84
Telecom Italia 84
Vodafone Italia 92
WIND 96
3 Italia 100
FastWeb 103
Regional Overview 108
Gemalto Product Portfolio Compensates For Macro Weakness 108
Table: Gemalto Financial Performance (EURmn) 110
Demographic Forecast 113
Italy Demographic Data 113
Table: Table: Italy and Japan Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 114
Table: Table: Italy and Japan Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 115
Table: Table: Italy and Japan Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 116
Table: Table: Italy and Japan Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 116
Glossary 117
Table: Glossary Of Terms 117
Methodology 119
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 119
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 119
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 120
Table: Ratings Indicators 121
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 122

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