Angola Oil and Gas Market Report Q4 2012

BMI View: With several new projects added or coming onstream in the next few years, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d) and PSVM (150,000b/d), we see Angolan oil output rising substantially in the coming decade. Attempts to cut gas flaring also boost the outlook for gas production. Nevertheless, OPEC quotas, the risk of project delays and the Angolan political environment still imply a significant amount of uncertainty.

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Main trends and developments we highlight for Angola’s oil and gas sector are as follows:
BMI expects oil production to increase from approximately 1.84mn b/d in 2011 to 2.51mn b/d in 2021, as ambitious new projects that have recently come onstream, such as Pazflor (220,000b/d), or that are scheduled to come onstream in the coming years, such as PSVM (150,000b/d), boost
the country’s upstream oil outlook.

Consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average rate of 10.75% from 2011 to 2021. This very high rate of growth is boosted by the country’s double-digit GDP growth, as the economy enjoys a catching up phenomenon following nearly three decades of civil war. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 88,000b/d in 2011 to hit 226,000b/d by 2021.
BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.74bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 7.23bcm by 2021, as the authorities and companies reduce the practice of flaring and start to monetise/ associated gas resources. Gas production is to be further boosted by new projects with considerable associated gas production, such as Pazflor (1.5bcm) and PSVM (2.5bcm).

Gas demand is set to rise at an average rate of 2.23% although this hides a somewhat irregular pace. Relatively low demand growth when compared to growth in gas production and oil consumption can be explained by the fact that gas plays virtually no role in the country’s electricity generation and that there are no plans to expand its share in the energy mix. As a result, we see gas consumption rising from 0.74bcm in 2011 to 0.93bcm by 2021.
Non-subsalt Angolan oil reserves are likely to reach a peak in the coming decade, although they are set to increase at first thanks to exploration potential; not only in the well known Lower Congo and Kwanza basin, but also in the southern Namibe basin. There is a substantial upside risk to our forecasts in the form of the subsalt acreages that were put on offer in 2011. However, with still limited information on the commercial viability and speed at which these resources can be monetised, we have decided not to include them in our forecast until more information is made available. Oil reserves are forecast to peak at about 10bn bbl in 2014-2016 before coming down to 8.8bn bbl by 2021. Gas reserves are expected to rise above 320bcm in 2012 and to
remain above that threshold through to 2020.

In terms of infrastructure, the authorities have ambitious plans in LNG and refining. The Angola LNG project appears to be on target to meet the 2012 completion deadline. However, the 65,000b/d Luanda refinery is still struggling and has low utilisation rates. The 200,000b/d SonaRef project is stalling but we still expect it to come onstream in the next 10 years, albeit
with some delays. The 200,000b/d Soyo plant is still in its early stages and we deem it unlikely to be completed before 2021.

Angola’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Booming demand in emerging markets clearly represents an opportunity for the company and we assume tight supply as a consequence. As a result, we forecast OPEC basket oil prices to remain elevated and average US$107.05 per barrel (bbl) in 2012, a figure similar to the 2011 average of US$107.52/bbl.

Report Details:

Published: Oct 2012

No. of pages:88

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