Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes, which have been exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost its nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level, while sales prices for power are low, although the International Monetary FundIMF is forcing through tariff increases. Key trends and developments in the Ukrainian electricity market:
Ukraine’s power generation in 2012 iwas estimated by BMI to have been 180.63 terawatt hours (TWh). During the period 2013-2021, Ukraine’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 1.47%, reaching 205.92TWh. Driving this growth will be an annual average gain of 2.61% in gas-fired generation. Non-hydro renewables will also play a bigger role in the country’s energy mix, growing by an annual average of 15.12% between 2013 and 2021.
BMI View Concerns surrounding the safety of nuclear power plants have been reignited as a result of uncertified parts found used in some of South Korea’s nuclear reactors. While we believe that the country is unlikely to shut more plants down, despite fervent protests, we believe that the government is likely to implement significant measures in the hope of regaining the public’s trust. Other plans include hastening the implementation of a smart grid that will also help the strained power suppliers meet the country’s growing consumption.
We forecast overall power generation in South Korea to grow an average of 3.59% per annum from 2012 to 2021, to reach 669 terawatt hours (TWh). While coal- and gas-fired generation continue to be vital, we expect most of this growth to come from nuclear generation. That said, we expect the country to continue adding thermal capacity to avoid further supply shortfalls, which it experienced in September 2011. Moreover, the increased cautiousness at which the government provides approvals for the construction of nuclear generators could, in turn, result in greater thermal generation growth, particularly gas-fired plants.
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