Paul Thomen

Friday 18 January 2013

New Report on India Power Market Report Q1 2013

BMI View: In light of India's economic and demographic growth, we expect power consumption toincrease from an estimated 697.65 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2011 to 1286.19TWh in 2021. The country's12th Five-Year Plan anticipates energy demand will grow by 6% per annum and electricity capacity willexpand by 100 gigawatts (GW). Critical to the plan is the focus on measures to combat the continued risein India's dependence on imported energy, and a move to favour diversification towards renewablesources as well as nuclear. The FY2012/13 budget announcement is indicative of this focus, with theIndian government initiating a series of incentives and measures that will benefit the power sector.

The key trends and developments in the Indian electricity market are:

Several developments in H212 within India's renewables industry highlight the continuedinterest the sector is receiving from private investors and the political will that underpins it. Weexpect further significant growth in the industry, and maintain our belief that renewables presentsignificant investment opportunities. However, we highlight that renewable-generated electricityis unlikely to contribute significantly to the country's overall power generation capacity. This isfounded on our concerns about the sheer size of India's electricity market, coupled with ourlong-held view that the renewable industry will not reach its full potential.

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India's coal shortage looks set to intensify as the weather turns wetter and colder. At the heart ofthe problem lies the inability to launch a new mining bill that will address the sector's poorbusiness environment, as well as state-owned coal miner Coal India's inability to maximise thecountry's coal potential. We believe coal shortages are likely to remain a downside risk to Indianpower producers and infrastructure activity over the short to medium term.

In the worst electricity disruption in a decade, two separate grid failures cut power supply tomore than 600mn people in 22 states at the end of July 2012. We believe the disruption is likelyto have come about as a result of the lack of investment in India's transmission and distributionnetwork, as well as in the broader electricity market. Consequently, we believe the Julydisruption could be the spark that ignites a wave of long-needed reform in India's electricitysector.

The Indian power sector's track record is testament to the difficulties the country faces in implementingits ambitious targets. State government indebtedness is a major obstacle to marshalling the massiveinfrastructure investment required, and a lack of depth in the Indian financial sector also limits fundingoptions. Furthermore, there is still a lack of regulatory transparency, longevity and certainty regarding thedomestic power sector.


Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
India Power SWOT
Regional Industry Overview
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
Industry Forecast Scenario
India Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
India Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Electricity Consumption
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Total Electricity Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
Table: India Trade Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021
Table: India Major Projects - Power
Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
India Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Rewards
Risks
Competitive Landscape
Power Grid
National Thermal Power Corporation
National Hydro-Electric Power Corporation
Nuclear Power Corporation Of India
Company Monitor
National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC)
NHPC
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecasts
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
Sources

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