Saudi Arabian Defense Industry Future Market Attractiveness Forecasts 2018

Synopsis

This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the Saudi Arabian defense industry, and provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values including key growth stimulators, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.

Introduction and Landscape

Why was the report written?

The Future of the Saudi Arabian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 offers the reader an insight into the market opportunities and entry strategies adopted by foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to gain market share in the Saudi Arabian defense industry.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

Saudi Arabia is estimated to have the fourth largest defense budget in the world, behind the US, China, and Russia. Valued at US$52.9 billion in 2013, the country’s defense expenditure is at the seventh position among the top 10 military spenders and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.92% to reach US$77.3 billion by 2018. Saudi Arabia’s military expenditure as a percentage of GDP will from its current 7.3% to 9.1% by 2018 due to slowing economic growth over the forecast period. An underdeveloped domestic defense industry coupled with the country’s high spending power presents ample opportunities for foreign OEMs to enter the market through an alliance route.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

A strained relationship with Iran, high spending power, and the need to develop a skilled military force to be key factors driving defense expenditure. The Saudi Arabian government’s hopes of strengthening its defense infrastructure in order to emerge as the most powerful nation in the Middle East have been supported by many years of high oil prices and strong economic growth. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Middle East is a regional power struggle for influence, in which both sides have aimed at steering the course of events, shaping developments, and influencing decisions in the region according to their political preferences and interests. The fact that the Saudi’s average defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP during the review period measured a significant 7.9% implies it has the purchasing power to procure state of the art defense equipment. In fact the country registered a figure of 7.3% with regards to its defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP, which was the highest among the world’s largest military spenders for 2012.

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What makes this report unique and essential to read?

The Future of the Saudi Arabian Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2018 provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

Key Features and Benefits

- The report provides detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth expectations from 2014 to 2018, including highlights of key growth stimulators, and also benchmarks the industry against key global markets and provides a detailed understanding of emerging opportunities in specific areas.

- The report includes trend analysis of imports and exports, together with their implications and impact on the Saudi Arabian defense industry.

- The report covers five forces analysis to identify various power centers in the industry and how these are expected to develop in the future.

- The report allows readers to identify possible ways to enter the market, together with detailed descriptions of how existing companies have entered the market, including key contracts, alliances, and strategic initiatives.

- The report helps the reader to understand the competitive landscape of the defense industry in Saudi Arabia. It provides an overview of key defense companies, both domestic and foreign, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.

Key Market Issues

- Bribery and corruption have been prevalent in Saudi defense procurement for many years, largely due to the monopolistic status exercised by the government over the purchase decisions of its armed forces. According to Transparency International, Saudi Arabia has insufficient safeguards against corruption in the defense industry. For example, corruption charges were leveled against a unit of EADS UK with regards to US$3.3 billion communication contract and being investigated by the UK Serious Fraud Office over bribery allegations in the country.

- Foreign investors may be deterred from entering the Saudi Arabian defense market because of scarcity of skilled labor, induced by the lack of industrial capabilities within the country. Nitaqat law makes it mandatory for the companies to have a minimum of 10% local employees and scarcity of skilled labor complicates the business environment for foreign companies. Although the government is focusing on making amendments, the non-employment rate has increased in recent years resulting in internal conflicts adding to the foreign companies’ woes.

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Table of Content

1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Defense expenditure expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.92% over the forecast period
3.1.2. Strained relationship with Iran, high spending power, and the need to develop a skilled military force to be key factors driving defense expenditure
3.1.3. Saudi Arabian defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to increase
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Large spending on training of personnel expected to continue
3.2.2. Military modernization drives Defense Capital Expenditure
3.2.3. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Saudi Arabia is expected to be the second largest homeland security spender in world, after the US, over the forecast period
3.3.2. Internal Security threat and Energy infrastructure protection will be the key drivers of homeland security
3.3.3. Saudi Arabia considered at 'moderately affected' of terrorist attack
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Saudi Arabia to be among the fastest-growing defense spenders
4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense industry heavily relies on imports from foreign countries
4.1.2. The UK and the US are the key defense suppliers to Saudi Arabia
4.1.3. Aircraft to dominate the Saudi Arabian defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Saudi Arabia's defense export market is negligible

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium to high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: low to medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Defense industry remains closed to FDI
6.1.2. Offset Program to aid defense industry and economy
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Double digit growth and underdeveloped domestic industry attracts foreign defense players
6.2.2. A large number of foreign corporations enter the defense market by winning contracts
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Bribery, corruption, and political affiliations
6.3.2. Scarcity of skilled Labor and Nitaqat law

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Saudi Arabian defense sector is dominated by foreign competitors
7.1.2. Domestic participation in the Saudi Arabian defense industry limited to only two companies
7.2. Key Foreign Companies
7.2.1. BAE Systems Plc.: overview
7.2.2. BAE Systems Plc.: products and services
7.2.3. BAE Systems Plc.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. BAE Systems Plc.: alliances
7.2.5. BAE Systems Plc.: recent contract wins
7.2.6. BAE Systems Plc.: financial analysis
7.2.7. EADS N.V.: overview
7.2.8. EADS N.V.: products and services
7.2.9. EADS N.V.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics and Social Statistics
8.1.1. Population - Rural
8.1.2. Population - Urban
8.1.3. Population - Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP per Capita
8.2.2. Gross Domestic Product
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services, US$
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, US$
8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.2.6. Consumer Price Index
8.2.7. Wholesale price Index
8.2.8. LCU per US$ (period average)
8.2.9. LCU per Euro (period average)
8.2.10. Market Capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn)
8.2.11. Market Capitalization of listed companies (as a % of GDP)
8.2.12. Goods Exports as a % of GDP
8.2.13. Goods Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.14. Trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.15. Services Imports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Services Exports as a % of GDP
Figure 51: Saudi Services Exports as a % of GDP, 2002-2011 111
8.2.17. Services Trade surplus/deficit as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Net Foreign Direct Investment (current US$ Bn)
8.2.19. Net FDI as a % of GDP
8.2.20. International reserves, including gold
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Proved Reserves of Natural Gas
8.3.5. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.6. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Rail lines (total route-km)
Figure 62: Saudi Arabian Rail lines (total route-km), 2001-2010 122
8.4.2. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.5. Technology
8.5.1. Research and development expenditure
8.5.2. Patents Granted
8.6. Telecommunication
8.6.1. Telephone Lines
8.6.2. Telephone lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

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