Paul Thomen

Wednesday 22 May 2013

LTE Strategies and Technology Analysis Forecast 2013-2018

RnRMarketResearch.com adds “LTE Strategy 2013 – 2018” new report on its database.

Migrating cellular networks to fourth generation (4G) via the Long Term Evolution (LTE) standard and other supporting technologies is a monumental effort.  Beyond the obvious radio planning and engineering is a huge effort in the areas of application planning, business operations planning, and technical planning.  Developing effective strategies for success with LTE is key to the successful commercialization of 4G for all mobile network operators.

LTE will usher in a new world of opportunities and challenges for every industry constituent including everything from new business models and industry participants to operational support systems for improved quality of service and user experience.

This report provides LTE strategies and technology analysis and provides recommendations for mobile network deployment.  It also includes market analysis of the LTE marketplace including mobile handsets, key service developments, device advancements and more.  The report also includes forecasts in every major area associated with LTE including:
  • Landline/Fixed Losses forecast
  • Migration from Landline to VoIP forecast
  • Global Wireless Infrastructure Spending (by technology, region, type)
  • Global LTE Device forecast and Data Usage (by category, device type, and region)
  • Global LTE Subscriptions and Revenue (by consumer, enterprise, and industry segment)

The report is must-reading for anyone developing strategy associated with deployment and operations of LTE including:
  • Product and services plans
  • Application development and distribution
  • Handset evolution and capability development
  • Impact assessment of LTE evolution on long-term planning
  • Investment in next generation infrastructure, devices, and applications
  • Network integration including API strategy and application launch/operation
  • Enterprises of all types seeking to identify the impacts and opportunities of 4G
Key Findings:
  • While gaining greatly through 2018, enterprise LTE subscription remain less then consumer
  • Mobile network operators have an imperative to develop Value-added Services (VAS) for LTE
  • Carriers must develop key applications such as Corporate Dashboard to retain enterprise customers
  • Extreme growth in mobile data associated with LTE expansion will require next generation OSS solutions
  • Carriers must prepare for a variety of challenges including much more data usage, increasingly more services in the cloud, severely marginalized core services, and development of VAS across communications, content, and commerce
Report Benefits:
  • Global forecasts for LTE devices including data usage by category, device type, and region
  • Global forecasts for LTE subscription (overall, consumer, enterprise and by industry vertical)
  • LTE global and regional status update and analysis of key issues including capacity and spectrum
  • Identify the key trends and issues associated with implementing and operating broadband wireless
  • Understand the evolution of wireless to 4G and beyond including network topology and integration
  • Identify the business value and roadmap for implementation and operation of LTE based applications
  • Understand the future of LTE including applications, integration with the cloud, social networks, and more
  • Identify emerging LTE business models including third-party ecosystems, API integration, and expanded applications
  • Recommendations and analysis for carriers, content providers, application developers and infrastructure companies
  • Understand the issues and opportunities regarding key evolutionary trends including:
o   Anytime, anywhere, any device access to communications, content, commerce, and applications
o    Increased emphasis on non-human communications
o    The convergence and integration of many things
o    Open networks, open interfaces, and many applications

Target Audience:
  • Mobile content providers
  • Mobile network operators
  • Wireless device manufacturers
  • Wireless infrastructure providers
  • Application developers and aggregators
  • Government and sovereign R&D institutions

Table of Content

1.0 Executive Summary 8
2.0 Introduction 9
2.1 Evolution Of The Wireless Marketplace 9
2.1.1 Key Evolutionary Trends 9
2.1.2 Key Supporting Technologies 12
2.2 Broadband Wireless Evolution 13
2.2.1 First Generation (1G) 13
2.2.2 Second Generation (2G) 14
2.2.3 Third Generation (3G) 14
2.2.4 Fourth Generation (4G) 14
2.2.1 Fifth Generation (5G) 19
3.0 LTE Global Status 21
3.1 Global Market Share By Technology 21
3.2 Global LTE Subscribers And Penetration By Country 21
3.3 Global Deployment: LTE By Region, Country And Carrier 33
3.4 Global Overall (2G, 3G, And 4G) Mobile Penetration 43
3.5 Global LTE Industry Verticals 44
3.5.1 Oil And Gas 44
3.5.2 Construction 45
3.5.3 Agriculture 45
3.5.4 Mining 45
3.5.5 Utilities 46
3.5.6 Transportation 46
3.5.7 Military/Defense 47
3.5.8 Public Safety 48
3.5.9 Education And Distance Learning 49
3.6 Global LTE Devices 50
3.7 Global Mobile Data Usage 51
3.8 Global Mobile Internet As A Percentage Of Total Internet 52
3.9 Global Mobile Broadband Snapshot: 1q 2013 53
3.10 Spectrum Currently Utilized For LTE 54
3.10.1 The Key Spectrum Sub-Band: 1755-1780 Mhz 55
3.10.2 National Broadband Plan 55
3.10.3 LTE Industry Spectrum Challenge: Fragmentation 56
3.10.4 LTE Industry Spectrum Solution: Adaptive And Cognitive Radio 56
3.11 Past And Projected Cellular Network Infrastructure Spending 57
3.11.1 Macro Cell Infrastructure Spending By Region 62
3.11.2 Carrier WiFi Infrastructure Spending 70
4.0 LTE Regional Status 71
4.1 Overall Regional Analysis 71
4.1.1 Mobile Usage During The Last Twenty Years By Representative Country 71
4.1.2 Global LTE Subscribers By Region 72
4.1.3 Top Data Usage By Country For 3G And LTE 72
4.1.4 Coms, Commerce, And App Usage Patterns In Representative Countries 73
4.2 Americas 74
4.2.1 LTE In USA 76
4.2.2 LTE In Latin America 77
4.3 Europe 79
4.3.1 France 81
4.3.2 Germany 81
4.3.3 Italy 81
4.3.4 Spain 82
4.3.5 United Kingdom 82
4.4 Middle East And Africa 82
4.4.1 Middle East 83
4.4.2 Africa 84
4.5 Asia Pacific 86
4.5.1 Australia 86
4.5.1 China 87
4.5.2 India 87
4.5.1 Japan 89
4.5.2 South Korea 90
5.0 LTE Planning And Implementation 92
5.1 Consideration Of Key Characteristics Of Technologies 92
5.2 Strategy For Growth Of LTE Dependent On Capacity Needs 97
5.2.1 Global Mobile Data Historical Growth And Forecasts 97
5.2.2 Global Growth Forecast Per Wireless Device Type 98
5.2.3 Global Mobile Data Forecast Growth Per Region 101
5.3 Migration From Current Networks To LTE 101
6.0 LTE OSS Improvements 103
6.1 Drivers For OSS Improvements 103
6.2 Self-Optimizing Networks (Son) 103
6.2.1 Why Son For LTE? 103
6.2.2 Son Categories And Use Cases 106
6.2.3 Son Implementation 108
7.0 Carrier Challenges 112
7.1 Spectrum Availability 112
7.2 Capex Budgets 112
7.3 Is More Capacity Better? 112
7.3.1 Advantages 112
7.3.2 Disadvantages 112
7.4 The Fight Against OTT Players 113
7.4.1 OTT Voice 113
7.4.2 OTT Messaging 113
7.4.3 Carriers To Fight Back 115
7.5 The Drivers For New Applications 117
8.0 LTE Application Strategy 119
8.1 Prepare For Much More Data Usage 119
8.1.1 Biggest Factor In Mobile Data: Mobile Video 119
8.1.2 Mobile Video Forecast 120
8.2 Prepare For Increasingly More Services In The Cloud 120
8.2.1 The Role Of Incumbent Network Operators In Mobile Cloud 121
8.2.2 Mobile Data In The Cloud Forecast 122
8.3 Prepare For Increasingly Marginalized Core Services 122
8.3.1 Marginalization Drives The Need For Value-Added Services 122
8.3.2 Valued Services Include Commerce, Content And Apps 123
8.4 Prepare For Deployment Of Value-Added Services 127
8.4.1 What Is A Value-Added Service (VAS)? 127
8.4.2 Relationship Of VAS To Other Services 128
8.4.3 Why Are VAS Important? 128
8.4.4 The VAS Supply Chain 128
8.4.5 Carrier Planning For VAS Applications 128
9.0 LTE Application Roadmap 130
9.1 Video 130
9.1.1 More Of The Same: Only Faster 131
9.1.2 Video Call 134
9.1.3 LTE Video Broadcast 135
9.1.4 Mobile TV In LTE 136
9.2 Voice Over LTE (Volte) 140
9.2.1 GSMA Volte Iniatives 141
9.2.2 Alternatives To Volte 142
9.3 Rich Communications Services (RCS) 143
9.3.1 GSMA RCS Initiatives 145
9.3.2 Rich Calls 146
9.3.3 Rich Messaging 147
9.3.4 RCS And Video 148
9.3.5 Dynamic Address Book (DAB) 148
9.4 LTE Direct 150
9.4.1 Direct Services 151
10.0 LTE Forecasts 154
10.1 Global LTE Forecasts 154
10.1.1 Global Subscriptions 2013 - 2018 154
10.1.2 Global Revenue 2013 - 2018 154
10.2 Global Consumer Vs. Enterprise Forecasts 155
10.2.1 Global Consumer Vs. Enterprise Subscriptions 2013 - 2018 155
10.2.2 Global Consumer Vs. Enterprise Revenue 2013 - 2018 155
10.3 LTE Market Segments 156
10.3.1 LTE In Industry Verticals 156
10.3.2 Global LTE Subscriptions By Major Industry Segment 2013 - 2018 160
10.4 Global LTE Device Forecast 2013 - 2018 161
10.5 Global Mobile Data Traffic 2012-2017 162
10.5.1 By Category 162
10.5.2 By Device Type 162
10.5.3 By Region 163
10.6 Projected Mobile Connection Speeds By Region 2012 - 2017 163
11.0 The Future Of LTE 165
11.1 Devices And Subscribers 165
11.1.1 Subscriber Behaviors Evolve 166
11.1.2 Consumer Electronics And LTE 167
11.1.3 The Global Market For Smartphones And Tablets 169
11.1.4 Next Generation Devices And LTE 171
11.2 Future Network Topology 172
11.2.1 Continued Small Cell Expansion 172
11.2.2 Heterogeneous Networks (Hetnets) 173
11.2.3 LTE Topology Roadmap 174
11.3 Future Applications 175
11.3.1 LTE And Social Networks/Media 176
11.3.2 LTE And Mobile Marketing/Advertising 177
11.3.3 LTE Enabled Mobile Commerce 178
11.3.4 Cloud Storage/Access 180
11.3.5 Peer-To-Peer (P2P) Communications 180
11.3.6 Augmented Reality (AR) 182
11.3.7 Wearable Wireless Drives New Applications 186
11.3.8 The Enterprise/Corporate Dashboard 187
11.3.9 Machine-To-Machine (M2M) And The Internet Of Things (IOT) 189
11.3.10 Convergence Of M2M, IOT, Social, And Big Data = Huge Opportunity 193
11.4 New LTE Business Models 194
11.4.1 Mobile Network API Models 194
11.4.2 Working With The Carriers 195
11.4.3 Dealing With Carrier Concerns In New Business Models 197
11.4.4 The Emergence Of A Structured Third-Party Ecosystem 199
12.0 Beyond 4G/LTE 202
12.1 The Vision For 5G 202
12.1.1 Evolution From 4G To 5G 202
12.2 Flat And De-Centralized IP Architecture 202
12.3 5G Challenges And Opportunities 203
12.4 Current 5G Developments 204
12.4.1 United Kingdom: Government 204
12.4.2 Korea: Samsung 204
13.0 Summary And Recommendations 206
13.1 Carriers 206
13.2 Content Providers 208
13.3 Application Developers 209
13.3.1 Consumer Market 209
13.3.2 Enterprise Market 210
13.3.3 Independents 211
13.4 Infrastructure Providers 214
13.4.1 Ericsson 215
13.4.2 Huawei 215
13.4.3 Nokia Siemens Networks 216
13.4.4 Alcatel-Lucent 216
13.4.5 ZTE 216
13.5 Wireless Device Providers 219
13.5.1 Overview 219
13.5.2 LTE Handset Issues 221
14.0 Appendix 224
14.1.1 History Of NGN And LTE 224
14.1.2 LTE Key Technologies 225
14.2 LTE Technology And Architecture 227
14.2.1 LTE Technology 228
14.2.2 LTE Advanced 230
14.2.3 LTE Infrastructure Elements And Architecture 232
14.3 LTE Architecture Details 241
14.3.1 Service Architecture 242
14.3.2 Layer 2 Of LTE 243
14.3.3 Downlink Logical 244
14.3.4 Uplink Logical 245
14.3.5 Mobility Across ENBS 246
14.4 IP Multimedia Subsystem And Service Deliver 247
14.4.1 SDP Architecture 247
14.4.2 SDP And OSS/BSS 249
14.4.3 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) 250
14.4.4 Technologies Supporting IMS 254
14.4.5 IMS And Sip 254
14.5 Other LTE Network And Application Enablers 259
14.5.1 Presence 259
14.5.2 Identity, Personal Data, And Preference Management 263
14.5.3 Telecom API And Management 265

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