Italy, Spain & Venezuela Food and Drink Q3 Market Report

RnRMarketResearch.com adds a new report “Italy Food and Drink Report Q3 2013” “Spain Food and Drink Report Q3 2013” and “Venezuela Food and Drink Report Q3 2013” on its database.

Italy Food and Drink Report Q3 2013

Despite signals that the worst is over in Italy, we nonetheless expect the economy to remain in recession throughout 2013, forecasting a 1.5% contraction of real GDP. Our forecast for 0.1% and 0.7% growth in 2014 and 2015 respectively reflect our view that a lack of structural reforms will limit the country’s competitiveness and productivity gains.

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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2013 per capita food consumption = +0.09% year-on-year (y-o-y); compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017 = +1.02%
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.28%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +2.45%
- 2013 soft drink value sales = -1.12% ; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +1.48%
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +0.15%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +1.22%

Spain Food and Drink Report Q3 2013

As a result of Spanish unemployment reaching 27.2% in Q113 (the highest ever recorded level) we see Spain’s private consumption picture deteriorating further over the next few quarters. Already low, real wages fell by 3.2% y-o-y in Q412 and unemployment is expected to remain above 25% until at least 2016, which will weigh heavily on disposable incomes and consumer spending for the time being. This economic environment will continue to create ideal conditions for private labels to thrive and will provide a sales boost at discount stores. In fact, one company that has managed to do well in 2012 has been the discount food retailer Dia – a Carrefour spin-off. We believe that Dia is one of a select few Western Europe-based food retailers with good near-term growth prospects in the region itself.

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Headline Industry Data (local currency)

 - 2013 per capita food consumption = +1.3%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017 = +1.9.
- 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +0.8%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +1.5%.
- 2013 soft drink value sales = +1.1%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +2.1%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +1.7%; forecast CAGR to 2017 = +2.6%.

Venezuela Food and Drink Report Q3 2013

We have long expected real private consumption to deteriorate in Venezuela during 2013, and there are early signs of this already occurring. Indeed, rising inflationary pressure, driven by the recent currency devaluation, have seen a significant slowdown in real credit growth and taken a toll on real wages. Both dynamics point towards a slowdown in real household spending. Real private consumption growth in Venezuela is forecast to slow from 7.0% in 2012 to 2.0% in 2013.

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Headline Industry Data (US$)

 - Per capita food consumption forecast to 2017 = -7.5%.
- Alcoholic drink sales forecast to 2017 = -7.2%.
- Soft drink sales forecast to 2017 = -3.6%.
- Mass grocery retail sales forecast to 2017 = -3.8%.

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